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El Niño keeps getting stronger, raises chance of drenching rains

Los Angeles Times, Rong-Gong Lin II and Raoul Rañoa, 10/15/15


"The National Weather Service now expects El Niño to bring greater-than-average rainfall to virtually all of California, forecasters said for the first time Thursday.


"The new forecast is significant because it raises the chance that El Niño will send big storms not only to Southern California and the San Francisco Bay Area — as has already been forecast — but also to the mountains that feed California’s most important reservoirs, which fuel water for much of the entire state. California’s largest reservoirs, Shasta Lake and Lake Oroville, are in the northern edge of the state."



A wet May brings rare good news for Lake Mead water projections

Las Vegas Sun, Conor Shine, 6/15/15

"A series of heavy storms across the basin last month led to higher than normal precipitation and even some snow at higher elevations that could pour as much as 1.5 million additional acre-feet into Lake Powell, the Colorado River's upstream reservoir. . . .


" At Lake Mead, the additional precipitation is enough to slow down the projected decline in lake elevation at least in the short term.


"The projections released today show Lake Mead's elevation next January at 1,083 feet, a six-foot increase compared to projections made last month. Looking further out, projections for January 2017 have been revised to 1,079 feet, 16 feet higher than had been projected for the same time period just a month ago.


"It's important to note that the Bureau of Reclamation's projections are revised monthly, and the outlook can change drastically based on snowfall and precipitation. Official water management decisions for the upcoming year will be made based on projections released in August.

Daily Statewide Hydrologic Update  For 10/1/14-Current

Click on link below chart

Why a ‘super El Niño’ could still be a bust for California drought relief

Washington Post, Angela Fritz, 7/27/15 

".  . . NOAA says there’s about an 80 percent chance that this El Niño will last through early spring of next year. Many forecast models are predicting a very strong event — something that’s only happened twice in the six decades we’ve been watching the tropical Pacific. The Capital Weather Gang’s Jason Samenow says this winter’s El Niño could rival the strongest on record . . .


"But El Niño isn’t the only weather game in town, and there’s one major difference between this year and the strongest El Niño on record — a vast pool of much warmer than average water in the northeast Pacific Ocean, which some have dubbed 'the blob.'


". . . Capital Weather Gang’s Matt Rogers says the North Pacific warm pool is a powerhouse right now and could prove hard to overcome, especially if El Niño turns out to be weaker than predicted. . . . "

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